"In the European market, Chinese electric vehicles are highly likely to replace Tesla."

Recently, at the 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Finance Forum, former Polish Prime Minister Marek Belka stated that Europe has recently discussed many issues regarding Chinese electric vehicles entering the European market. He believes that Chinese electric vehicles have the opportunity to take Tesla's place, as Tesla is also not a European company, so there should be no major problem with such a replacement.

Indeed, in recent years, Chinese electric vehicle enterprises have rapidly risen in the European market. Through technological innovation, supply chain integration, and localization strategies, they have gradually expanded their influence and posed challenges to the market positions of some local dominant automakers.

And the remarks by the former Polish prime minister further reveal an ongoing transformation: the balance of power in the European electric vehicle (EV) market is shifting.

Meanwhile, behind this trend lies a process in which China’s automotive industry is reshaping European market perceptions through technological revolution, completing a role transition from a follower to a rule-maker. Even if Chinese EVs cannot replace Tesla and traditional automotive giants in the short term, their influence in the European market will undoubtedly continue to rise in the long run.

Rewinding the clock to 2008, Tesla delivered its first Tesla Roadster in Europe, marking the starting point of its journey in the European market. During this period, with advanced technology and stylish design, it captured the attention of countless European consumers, with sales soaring and occupying considerable market shares in multiple countries, thus becoming a benchmark in the electric vehicle sector.

The Model Y has remained the best-selling model in the European market for over a decade, while the Model 3 broke sales records in many countries upon its launch. Today, the cumulative number of Tesla vehicles on European roads has reached 1 million, making Tesla an automaker capable of competing with Volkswagen and the No. 1 electric vehicle manufacturer in Europe.

However, Tesla’s performance in the European market is faltering in 2025.

Data shows that Tesla's sales in Europe plummeted 36% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, reaching only 53,200 vehicles, with core markets like Germany and France experiencing declines exceeding 60%. In the first four months of this year, Tesla's European sales plunged 38% year-on-year, dropping sharply from 101,000 vehicles last year to 62,000.

Among them, the Model Y, which was supposed to be a key model for boosting sales, saw its April sales halved from nearly 10,000 vehicles last year to 4,743 units, a 51.1% drop. The Model 3 also performed poorly, with April sales of 3,094 units, a 35.1% year-on-year decline.

What is surprising is that this downturn is occurring against the backdrop of rapid overall growth in European electric vehicle sales.

From a broader perspective, Tesla's sales crisis is not caused by a single factor but represents the concentrated outbreak of multiple contradictions: lagging product iteration, significantly amplified political risks, subsidy phase-outs, and insufficient localization further weakening its competitiveness.

In terms of products, Tesla's pace of product updates has been glacial. Take the best-selling Model Y as an example—the vehicle has not undergone a major redesign in five years, leading to excessively long waiting times for consumers and a decline in market appeal.

Tesla's official website shows that the delivery timeline for the refreshed Model Y Rear-Wheel Drive version is 2 to 4 weeks, and 3 to 5 weeks for the Long Range version. The extended waiting times for vehicle delivery indicate that order volumes for the new Model Y have not significantly exceeded projected production capacity. Compared to the supply shortages of previous years, some sales personnel believe the market response has been less than optimistic.

Meanwhile, political moves publicly supported by Musk have sparked resentment among European consumers, with incidents of vandalism reported at Tesla stores, vehicles, and charging stations in multiple European cities. Additionally, Tesla’s globally integrated supply chain has been affected by U.S. tariff policies, while rumors of an affordable Model 2 remain nowhere in sight...

Under these cumulative adverse factors, Tesla has suffered a sales collapse in the European market.

In contrast to Tesla’s performance, traditional European automakers such as Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz have accelerated their transitions to new energy vehicles, launching multiple competitive EV models. Leveraging their deep engineering expertise and large user bases, these traditional carmakers have made significant progress in a short period.

Meanwhile, the rise of electric vehicles from China cannot be underestimated. Brands such as SAIC, BYD, NIO, and XPeng have won consumer favor in domestic and international markets with rapid technological iteration and high cost-performance product strategies, gradually eroding Tesla’s original market share.

Between this increase and decrease, the European EV market is transitioning from a "Tesla-dominated era" to a phase of "multi-power rivalry," providing Chinese EVs with more opportunities to enhance their influence in Europe after technological upgrades and systematic development. Some European netizens even quip: "While Musk is busy cozying up with Trump, Chinese automakers are taking the opportunity to plug charging piles into the heart of Europe."

The European market is one of the top three export markets for Chinese automobiles. In 2024, China's total passenger vehicle exports reached the 5 million-unit scale, with exports to Europe alone hitting 1 million units. In the first quarter of this year, registrations of Chinese-brand vehicles in Europe surged 78% year-on-year to a record 150,000 units, with market share climbing to 4.5%.

Models from brands including BYD, MG, Great Wall ORA, and Chery have all achieved strong sales performances. Among them, BYD sold over 10,000 units in 14 countries such as Spain, Italy, France, the UK, and Germany—far exceeding Tesla’s approximately 6,000 units in the same region. The MG4 has surpassed European competitors like the Volkswagen ID.3 and Renault Megane E-Tech.

Behind this sales growth lies the breakthrough code of Chinese smart manufacturing.

First is the overwhelming technological edge in battery technology.

CATL's Shenxing Battery 4C ultra-fast charging technology and BYD's Blade Battery CTB (Cell to Body) integrated design are rewriting Europe’s cognitive standards for power batteries. When the technological gap exceeds brand appeal, the market balance will inevitably shift. A Volkswagen executive once candidly stated: "Chinese batteries cost 35% less than locally produced European equivalents while offering 15% higher energy density." This dual advantage of superior technology and lower costs has put European automakers in a dilemma.

Second is the systemic domination of intelligent ecosystems.

Huawei’s ADS 3.0 intelligent driving system, NIO’s NOMI GPT interaction engine, Li Auto’s Smart Space 3.0... Chinese automakers have upgraded intelligent cockpits from functional modules to "mobile third spaces." In contrast, the cockpit interaction logic of the Tesla Model Y remains at a level from several years ago, with growing complaints about the "technological generation gap" in European user forums.

Meanwhile, the precise adaptation of localized innovation is also an important plus.

For example, the MG4 has developed an ice and snow mode tailored to European road conditions, the BYD Seal comes standard with an EU-standard trailer hitch, and the Great Wall ORA Ballet Cat offers a "queen co-pilot" design that aligns with European women’s driving habits. Such strategies of technological localization are dispelling the stereotype that "Chinese cars do not understand Europe." Coupled with Chinese automakers’ higher OTA update frequencies, which allow products to evolve in sync with user needs, European consumers are continuously revising their perceptions of Chinese EVs through real-world usage, deepening the influence of Chinese vehicles.

Moreover, moves such as Gotion High-Tech’s construction of a 20GWh battery factory in Germany (representing supply chain restructuring); NIO’s channel revolution with NIO Houses on Paris’ Champs-Élysées; and Huawei and DJI’s participation in formulating EU V2X communication standards (representing standard-setting output)—all demonstrate that Chinese automakers’ advancements are reshaping Europe’s automotive industry ecosystem.

With these competitive moats in place, Chinese EVs have gained the confidence for sustained growth in the European market.

In 2024, the market share of Chinese-brand pure electric vehicles in the EU surpassed 18%, nearly a tenfold increase from 2020. Chinese brands hold an 11% share of Europe’s EV market, projected to rise to 20% by 2027. Among them, BYD’s European market share has surged from 0.4% in 2022 to 8% in 2024.

The essence of this explosive growth lies in European consumers beginning to reevaluate product value.

Recently, a spokesperson for the European Commission stated that China and the EU have agreed to explore setting a minimum price for Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs) to replace the EV tariffs imposed in 2024. Notably, this trade strategy of "setting a minimum price" aims to safeguard fairness in the European market while creating space for legitimate trade.

Many European industry insiders believe that against the backdrop of the U.S. abuse of tariffs, China and the EU may rapidly resolve some trade disputes to prevent trade frictions from escalating. Meanwhile, the EU’s replacement of tariffs with fixed minimum prices could encourage more Chinese EVs to enter Europe and participate in the market competition against Tesla.

Chinese EV enterprises, leveraging technological iteration, cost advantages, and localization strategies, are in the process of reshaping the European market landscape. Although they may struggle to fully replace Tesla in the short term, they have already established overwhelming dominance in the mid-to-low-end market and are gradually penetrating the high-end segment. If they continue to break through brand perception barriers and technological hurdles, they will have opportunities to challenge Tesla’s position in the future.