Top Ten International Automotive News in 2024

European Union imposes countervailing duties on China, electric vehicles export encounter resistance

On October 29, 2024, the European Union (EU) Commission released the final ruling of the anti-subsidy investigation into electric vehicles (EVs) imported from China. Starting from October 30, on top of the original 10% tariff, the EU imposed an additional anti-subsidy duty of up to 35.3% on EVs produced in China and exported to the EU market, valid for five years.

According to the final ruling document, the EU imposed additional tariffs of 17%, 18.8%, and 35.3% on three sampled enterprises—BYD, Geely, and SAIC Motor, respectively. The rate for other "cooperative companies" was 20.7%, while that for other "non-cooperative companies" was 35.3%. Tesla was subject to a separate 7.8% tariff. Adding the 10% basic customs duty, Chinese-produced EVs exported to the EU may face a maximum total tariff of 45.3%.

Since the EU launched the anti-subsidy investigation in October 2023, sales of Chinese-made EVs in Europe have shown declines and fluctuations. It is noteworthy that although the tariff increase has taken effect, this is not the final outcome. Both China and the EU have confirmed that price commitments will continue to be pursued as a solution, and are studying possible minimum price commitments by Chinese producers or investment plans in Europe.

Chinese brands are on the rise, and their sales are among the top five in the world

As the global automotive industry accelerates its transformation toward electrification and intelligence, the industry's inherent landscape is being rewritten. Chinese independent brands represented by BYD, Chery, and Geely have made remarkable progress, with their transitions in electrification and intelligence earning notable acclaim. In 2023, BYD sold 3.02 million vehicles, ranking as the world's 10th largest automaker by sales. This marked the first time a Chinese automaker joined the global top 10, standing alongside international automotive giants.

Entering 2024, the performance of China's leading independent brands remains outstanding. In the first three quarters of 2024, BYD's global sales reached 2.745 million vehicles, surpassing Nissan and Suzuki to rank 8th globally. The seven automakers ahead of it are Toyota, Volkswagen Group, Hyundai Motor Group, General Motors, Stellantis Group, Ford, and Honda.

Notably, if looking solely at the third quarter, two Chinese enterprises appeared on the global top 10 automakers sales list: BYD and Geely. Among them, BYD ranked 6th. Given its rapid growth, Nikkei Chinese Net predicted that BYD's sales in the fourth quarter of this year will "definitely" enter the global top 5. Additionally, in the third quarter of 2024, Geely Group rose from 11th place in the same period last year to 9th place, driven by the strong sales of brands such as Galaxy and Zeekr. Furthermore, Chery, currently ranked 12th, is also charging toward the global top 10 list.

The demand for electric vehicles in Europe, America is weakening, and multinational automakers are adjusting the pace of transformation

Since the second half of 2023, demand for electric vehicles (EVs) in European and American markets has significantly slowed. Many consumers have hesitated to purchase EVs due to concerns over subsidy phase-outs, high premiums, and charging infrastructure. Entering 2024, EV demand in Europe and the U.S. continued to cool.

Data from the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) shows a clear trend in the European passenger vehicle market during the first three quarters of 2024: strong sales of fuel-electric hybrid vehicles and a downturn in pure EVs. Specifically, sales of pure EVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) fell by 2.6% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively, while sales of fuel-electric hybrid vehicles surged by 19.2% year-on-year. In the U.S. market, pure EV sales in the first three quarters of 2024 grew by 8.7% year-on-year, a significant slowdown from the previous two years.

Facing changing market conditions, as well as profits from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and continuous losses in EV businesses, multinational automakers such as Volkswagen Group, Mercedes-Benz, General Motors, and Ford have generally adopted more cautious and gradual strategies since this year, slowing down the pace of electrification transformation and scaling back related investments and deployments. For example, Ford abandoned its goal of full electrification in Europe and decided to continue launching ICE models in the European market after 2030. Volvo Cars, which was relatively aggressive in its transformation, also announced the abandonment of its target to become a pure EV brand by 2030. However, multinational automakers have repeatedly emphasized their long-term optimism about the development prospects of EVs.

China's auto exports have firmly established themselves as the world's leading "whole zero" and continue to promote overseas localization

In recent years, China's automobile exports have scaled new heights annually, surging from 1 million to 5 million vehicles and entering a period of high-speed growth. According to customs statistics, China exported approximately 5 million complete vehicles in 2023, a year-on-year increase of nearly 60%, surpassing Japan to become the world's largest automobile exporter for the first time.

Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that from January to November 2024, China's automobile exports reached 5.345 million vehicles, up 21.2% year-on-year. Comparing with the same period data of other major automobile exporting countries, it is a foregone conclusion that China will retain its position as the world's largest automobile exporter in 2024.

Notably, the enhancement of corporate strength and the intensification of domestic market competition are prompting more and more Chinese complete vehicle and parts enterprises to "go global," with overseas localized factory construction becoming a major trend. For example, in the European market, the first model produced by Chery's Spanish factory rolled off the production line in November 2024. In Southeast Asia, particularly in Thailand, many Chinese automakers such as BYD, SAIC MG, Neta Auto, Changan Automobile, Great Wall Motor, and GAC Aion are vying to invest in factories. At the same time, battery enterprises such as CATL, Gotion High-Tech, EVE Energy, Envision AESC, and Sunwoda, as well as other parts enterprises, have also successively added overseas factories to supply Chinese and overseas automakers nearby.

Volkswagen and Bosch lead major layoffs, and the transformation of the European automotive industry is "under great pressure"

In 2024, many large European automakers and parts suppliers successively initiated major layoffs. Recently, Volkswagen Group, Europe's largest automaker, announced that it had reached an agreement with labor unions on a restructuring plan. Under the agreement, the Volkswagen Group will not close any German factories in the short term but will lay off over 35,000 workers in Germany by 2030 and reduce production capacity at German plants. Prior to this, Ford Motor announced in November 2024 that it plans to cut 4,000 jobs in Europe by the end of 2027; Stellantis has also unveiled multiple layoff plans.

Compared with traditional automotive giants like Volkswagen Group, parts suppliers have been hit harder and appear more vulnerable in the crisis. Many small and medium-sized parts suppliers have collapsed, while large suppliers are rushing to cut costs. In November 2024, Bosch Group announced that its automotive division will lay off 5,500 employees globally in the coming years, including 3,800 positions in Germany. Additionally, major parts suppliers such as Autoliv, Continental Group, ZF, and Schaeffler have also launched layoff plans. According to incomplete statistics, major parts giants announced over 50,000 layoffs in Europe in 2024 alone.

Currently, the European automotive industry is facing severe overcapacity and fierce competition, with the pace of electrification transformation slower than previously expected. The energy crisis combined with the "growing pains" of transformation has subjected the European automotive industry to enormous pressure.

Musk's "out of the circle" economic star is also a political star

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Elon Musk, the world's richest person and CEO of Tesla, has seen a surge in presence, regarded as the "top contributor" to Trump's victory in the election. According to informed sources, Musk spent approximately $200 million to help Trump win the election.

Now, with Trump's victory, Musk has reaped substantial rewards, evolving from a business tycoon into a rising political star. Handpicked by Trump alongside U.S. entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, Musk will lead the newly proposed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), aiming to drastically cut government spending. With the change in White House leadership, Musk's influence has expanded to the realm of autonomous driving regulation. Recently, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued new rules for autonomous vehicles, seeking to simplify the review process for automakers' exemption applications and allow deploying self-driving vehicles without essential manual controls like steering wheels or brake pedals.

While aiding Trump's return to the White House and launching reforms of the U.S. federal government, Musk's business empire has also thrived. Technological advancements at Tesla in autonomous driving and robotics have attracted numerous investors, and coupled with Musk's successful "political gamble," Tesla's market value has soared to over $1.4 trillion recently.

Honda and Nissan discuss merging "group heating" to meet transformation challenges

On December 23, Honda and Nissan announced the signing of a basic letter of intent to launch negotiations on a business integration. The two sides will explore the joint establishment of a new holding company to incorporate both entities. Honda and Nissan plan to reach a final agreement by June 2025 and promote the listing of the new holding company by August 2026, at which point Honda and Nissan will delist. If successful, the world's third-largest automaker will be born.

According to the plan, Honda and Nissan will retain their respective brands. Through business integration, they aim to achieve standardization of vehicle platforms to reduce costs and complement each other in accelerating the launch of hybrid and electric vehicles. The two sides will also integrate their R&D divisions, deepen cooperation in software, electric vehicle development, and other areas to achieve synergy effects. Through the merger, Honda and Nissan are expected to form a large enterprise with annual revenue exceeding 30 trillion yen and operating profit exceeding 3 trillion yen. On the same day, Honda, Nissan, and Mitsubishi also signed a basic letter of intent. As for whether to participate in the merger, Mitsubishi will make a decision by the end of January 2025. Currently, Nissan holds a 24% stake in Mitsubishi.

In the eyes of the outside world, the root cause of Honda and Nissan joining hands lies in the gradual loss of momentum of the two companies in the fierce global competition. As automotive competition shifts to electric vehicles and in-vehicle software, the technological advantages of Japanese automakers in engines and other areas have rapidly weakened. The rise of automakers such as BYD and Tesla, as well as the advantages of emerging car companies in in-vehicle software, have intensified the sense of crisis for Japanese automakers. For this reason, Honda and Nissan have chosen to join forces for mutual survival.

The industrialization of solid-state batteries is accelerating, and large-scale vehicles are ready for deployment

In 2024, solid-state batteries remained highly hyped, emerging as a focal point for competition among vehicle manufacturers and supply chain enterprises. In China, companies such as Dongfeng, Chery, GAC, CATL, Sunwoda, CALB, and Tailan New Energy have shown intense enthusiasm for R&D in solid-state batteries, with some already unveiling concept cars or prototypes. For example, at the 2024 Guangzhou Auto Show, Chery launched the LieFeng concept car equipped with all-solid-state batteries; GAC Group stated that it has initially established the full-process manufacturing technology for all-solid-state batteries, expecting to integrate them into its Hyper models by 2026.

In the international market, solid-state batteries also stand at the research frontier. On November 22, Honda announced it would begin trial production of all-solid-state batteries for pure electric vehicles starting January 2025. The company also revealed that new vehicles sold in the coming years will be equipped with all-solid-state batteries, with future considerations for applications in motorcycles and aircraft. Additionally, Toyota, Nissan, Panasonic, South Korean battery firms LG Energy Solution, SK On, Samsung SDI, and European and American enterprises like Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen Group, and General Motors are actively deploying in this field. Most of these companies have scheduled mass production and vehicle integration of all-solid-state batteries between 2026 and 2030.

From the mass production timelines of relevant enterprises, it is evident that competition for all-solid-state batteries at home and abroad will gradually intensify after 2025. Once the technology matures, it may significantly determine the future trajectory of the electric vehicle market.

Stellantis head unexpectedly "dismissed" traditional multinational car companies face many challenges

"Cost killer" Carlos Tavares was ousted ahead of schedule in 2024. On December 1, Stellantis Group announced that its board had accepted Tavares' request to resign as CEO, with the resignation taking effect immediately. Originally, Tavares' contract was due to expire in early 2026, and Stellantis had previously suggested he might stay on beyond that.

One of the main reasons for Tavares' departure was Stellantis' "Waterloo" in its core North American market. Driven by his strict cost-control and profit-oriented strategies, Stellantis reaped substantial short-term returns, with 2023 profits hitting a record high. However, pent-up issues exploded in 2024, forcing Stellantis to tackle delayed new model launches, high inventory, product recalls, and shrinking market share in the U.S. and Europe due to premium pricing. In the U.S. especially, Tavares faced dual pressure from dealers and the United Auto Workers (UAW).

Tavares' fate is not unique. Against the backdrop of intensified geopolitical conflicts, a weak global economy, and rapid transformation in the automotive industry, traditional multinational automakers and their managements face significant challenges. Previously, Volkswagen Group's former CEO Herbert Diess clashed irreconcilably with labor unions over aggressive cost-cutting and transformation, leading to his early exit. "This is a very tough industry in a very tough time," Tavares once said.

Robotaxi commercialization accelerates competition landscape differentiation

In 2024, the Robotaxi (autonomous taxi) market has been highly promising, with commercial applications accelerating. For example, Baidu's Apollo Go Robotaxi's rapid deployment in Wuhan attracted widespread attention online. Meanwhile, the competitive landscape of the Robotaxi market is showing clear differentiation: some players are retreating, others are eager to enter, and new participants continue to join.

On December 10 local time, General Motors announced that after nearly a decade and over $10 billion in R&D investment, it would stop funding its autonomous driving unit Cruise's Robotaxi project. The decision came due to the exorbitant time and costs required to scale operations, as well as intensifying competition. GM will shift its R&D focus to assisted driving and autonomous systems for personal vehicles.

Cruise's direct rival, Waymo, has already provided Robotaxi services in multiple major U.S. cities and continues to expand. Tesla plans to launch Robotaxi services to the public in California and Texas by 2025. In the Chinese market, the Robotaxi sector is also heating up: Baidu has stated that Apollo Go is expected to break even in Wuhan by the end of this year; XPeng plans to launch Robotaxi products by 2026; GAC Group has successively invested in WeRide, Pony.ai, and DiDi to promote Robotaxi mass production.