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Under the tariff shock, global automakers warn of the impact

With the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on imported vehicles starting April 3, followed by a 25% tariff on critical components like engines, transmissions, powertrain parts, and electronic components from May 3, the tariff policies led by U.S. President Trump are rapidly becoming a core concern for the entire automotive industry. Global mainstream automakers including General Motors, Ford, Stellantis, Toyota, Honda, and Mercedes-Benz have treated the situation with high alert, one after another lowering or withdrawing their 2025 performance guidelines and issuing advance warnings for profit shrinkage.

Automobile companies are on high alert.

Facing tariffs, "Detroit's Big Three" have no escape. For example, Ford Motor expects Trump's tariff policies to cause the company a $1.5 billion loss in adjusted EBIT in 2025. Considering the risks posed by tariffs, Ford also withdrew its 2025 performance guidance. The company had previously projected adjusted EBIT of $7 billion to $8.5 billion for 2025.

General Motors has also been hit hard, expecting annual profits to decline by $4 billion to $5 billion due to tariffs—nearly three times Ford's projected loss. Paul Jacobson, GM's CFO, noted that $2 billion of the loss stems from vehicle import tariffs, with the rest from component import tariffs. As a result, the company revised its 2025 adjusted EBIT guidance from $10 billion-$15 billion to $10 billion-$12.5 billion.

Stellantis Group stated that the ever-changing U.S. tariff policies make it difficult to predict the impact on sales and the competitive landscape, so the company withdrew its full-year 2025 financial guidance and is "closely engaging" with tariff policymakers. Not long ago, Stellantis Chairman John Elkann warned that high U.S. tariffs and overly strict European regulations are endangering the automotive industries in Europe and America amid increasing market competition from Chinese automakers.

The challenges posed by tariffs to Japan's automotive industry have also drawn widespread attention. Since the U.S. is Japan's largest export market, accounting for 30% of total exports, tariffs naturally hit Japanese automakers hard. At the end of April, Japan's Minister of Economic Revitalization, Ryosei Akasawa, who led negotiations with the U.S. government, said a top Japanese automaker was losing $1 million per hour due to U.S. tariffs.

Specifically, Toyota Motor expects its operating profit for fiscal 2025 (April 2025-March 2026) to fall to ¥3.8 trillion, with net profit plunging 35% year-on-year to ¥3.1 trillion. One of the main reasons for the sharp profit contraction is the impact of U.S. tariff policies. In just April and May, the company expects an operating profit loss of ¥180 billion (approximately ¥9 billion RMB).

Honda also has a bleak outlook, projecting a 70% year-on-year drop in net profit to ¥250 billion for fiscal 2025. Honda emphasized that the tariff policies will have a "very significant" impact on its business, with frequent changes making it difficult to forecast the future.

Nissan noted that Trump's tariff policies will cause the company a ¥450 billion ($22.3 billion RMB) loss in fiscal 2025, but due to the unclear tariff outlook, Nissan did not provide full-year operating profit or net profit forecasts. However, based on recent quarterly performance, Nissan expects an operating loss of ¥200 billion for April-June 2025, compounded by tariff impacts.

Mazda announced the postponement of its fiscal 2025 forecasts, stating that the opaque business environment caused by U.S. auto tariffs continues, making calculations difficult at this stage.

Additionally, European automakers with extensive U.S. operations have also issued warnings. Mercedes-Benz emphasized that if Trump's tariff policies continue, company profits will be "negatively affected." The company has abandoned its previously set performance guidelines, only stating that under tariff impacts, all metrics are expected to be lower than the same period last year.

In its Q1 2025 earnings report, the Volkswagen Group had already set aside €300 million in provisions to address U.S. tariff policies and diesel vehicle litigation. The BMW Group is relatively more optimistic, maintaining its 2025 performance guidance and believing that some auto tariffs may start to decline from July. However, BMW also noted that if tariff rates increase or implementation periods exceed expectations, actual performance may deviate from targets, and bottlenecks may emerge in specific component and raw material supply chains.

Shift to a defensive strategy

Facing the impact of tariffs, automakers have shifted to a passive defense strategy in production and operations. Take Ford as an example: according to CFO Shirley House, the company's total tariff costs amount to approximately $2.5 billion, but $1 billion can be offset through a series of measures. For instance, they are transporting some vehicles and components from Mexico to Canada via bonded trucks to avoid U.S. tariffs.

Although these measures have alleviated pressure to some extent, and Ford is in a slightly better position than competitors due to its higher proportion of U.S.-produced vehicles, the company remains deeply concerned. Ford has pointed out that tariff impacts on the supply chain could lead to disruptions in U.S. auto production. Tariff hikes, changes in implementation methods, and potential retaliatory measures from other countries all pose additional threats to operations. Ford CEO Jim Farley warned investors that Trump's auto tariff policies are expected to last "at least three years," leading to industry-wide price increases and dragging down the company's second-half vehicle sales. Ford had previously warned that if the U.S. government continues imposing tariffs, it would be forced to raise prices in the U.S. market starting in July.

Looking at General Motors, while it expects $4 billion to $5 billion in tariff-related losses, the company has pre-emptively prepared contingency plans, "expecting to offset at least 30% of the tariff impact." If tariffs persist long-term, GM may take further steps such as shifting vehicle production or component supplies. GM Chairman and CEO Mary Barra stated: "General Motors is adapting to the new trade policy environment, further strengthening its supply chain system, and enhancing the profitability of its EV business."

Among Japanese automakers, Toyota President Koji Sato said the company will consider increasing product development and production efforts in the U.S. over the medium to long term.

Honda has announced that due to factors such as tariffs and slowing EV demand, it is delaying its plan to build a factory in Canada by approximately two years. Additionally, to avoid tariffs, Honda has decided to produce the next-generation Civic Hybrid in Indiana, U.S., rather than in Mexico. Meanwhile, to mitigate tariff impacts, Honda rushed to ship large quantities of vehicles produced in Japan, Canada, and Mexico to the U.S. before the tariffs took effect.

Currently, the shock from auto tariffs continues to reverberate—not just at the corporate level, but governments around the world are also intensifying negotiations with the U.S. This tariff storm is not only testing companies' ability to adapt but has also become a key variable in reshaping the global automotive industry landscape.
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